A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
